Vancouver Secrets

Bush Syndrome Still Alive In Canada

George Bush is coming to Canada on March 17, to give a speech in Calgary as a guest of the city’s chamber of commerce.

Nice to know Calgary is still the most friendly Canadian city to our US friends.

But not to let a quick visit by go to waste, a nutty group of supposed lawyers call for…

Ban Bush from Canada for war crimes: lawyers:

In a letter to the RCMP war crimes section and copied to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff and other federal ministers and opposition MPs, the Lawyers Against the War group claims that Bush is “inadmissible to Canada . . . because of overwhelming evidence that he has committed, outside Canada, torture and other offences” as detailed in Canada’s War Crimes Act.

Not sure who the Lawyers Against War guys are, but they are a crazy bunch.

Their site hasn’t been updated since 2004. Me thinks they are after some free publicity. Here you go.

photo credit: *eddie

Think 2008 Was Boring? This Will Change Your Mind.

This is one of the best photographic essays of the events of 2008 – and I’d like to share it with you.

It even has a shot from Vancouver.

2008 was actually a fascinating year, as the pictures will show… be prepared to set aside a few minutes or so, and to be amazed.

There’s a lot to look forward to in 09.  Happy New Year.

The year 2008 in photographs – From Boston.com “2008 has been an eventful year to say the least – it is difficult to sum up the thousands of stories in just a handful of photographs. That said, I will try to do what I’ve done with other photo narratives here, and tell a story of 2008 in photographs. It’s not the story of 2008, it’s certainly not all stories, but as a collection it does show a good portion of what life has been like over the past 12 months.”

Lightning bolts appear above and around the Chaiten volcano as seen from Chana, some 30 kms (19 miles) north of the volcano, as it began its first eruption in thousands of years, in southern Chile May 2, 2008. Cases of electrical storms breaking out directly above erupting volcanoes are well documented, although scientists differ on what causes them. Picture taken May 2, 2008. (REUTERS/Carlos Gutierrez)

Kartoula, 14, a refugee from Sudan’s western Darfur region, enters a distribution centre to receive monthly food rations at Djabal camp near Gos Beida in eastern Chad, June 5, 2008. (REUTERS/Finbarr O’Reilly) #

The Space Shuttle Discovery lifts off from launch pad 39-A at Kennedy Space Center on May 31, 2008 in Cape Canaveral, Florida, en route to the International Space Station on a construction mission. (Eliot J. Schechter /Getty Images) #

An aerial view of floods caused by Tropical Storm Hanna is seen in Gonaives, Haiti on September 3, 2008. Haiti’s civil protection office said 37 of the 90 Hanna-related deaths had occurred in the port city of Gonaives. (REUTERS/Marco Dormino/Minustah) #

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Surprised? Home Sales Fell Off A Cliff.

Home prices have fallen 10% on a  sales decline of 42% in November. Add in the stock market losses and overall Canadians have lost $191 Billion in net worth.

In Vancouver, sales slide by 62%. The benchmark has dropped by $104,000 so far this year, most of it in the past three months. If the real estate graph over the last three months was a ski run, it wouldn’t be a black diamond, it would be a “Keep Out” sign.

“The situation is unraveling fast in British Columbia….further price correction should be expected in the near term.” -RBC Economics Research, “Housing Trends and Affordability,” December 2008

And the bottom won’t be reached until late in 2009, or sometime in 2010. 

Not to stop our ever optimistic realtors though.. “The sales numbers are on track to surpass that of November. Mortgage rates are dropping and affordability is improving every day. Perhaps some buyers are beginning to look for bargains?” (December 11, 2008)

This sums up the situation as far as buyers are concerned: “Anyone selling their property for half the price of the current appraised value please let me know.” 

My advice to anyone thinking of buying in Vancouver is to rent for at least the next year. Hopefully prices will go down to a level that reflects reality – and you’ll be ahead by tens of thousands.

 photo credit: A Hermida

Vancouver – Greedy Landlords?

Or is it just what happens in a hyper-inflated housing market?.

H/T:

Vancouver’s apartment renters are complaining of being booted out of their building so the owners can make renovations then jack up the rent.

Councilor Tim Stevenson says it’s not fair, and it’s time for the provincial government to step in. “We’re asking that the province amend the residential tenancy act to require landlords to allow tenants who are evicted for renovations, come back into their suites once they’re completed, at the same rent that they were paying prior to the renovations. He also says eviction notices should be extended from 60 to 90 days and landlords’ records should be turned over annually to the residential tenancy branch.

The problem with this idea is that it will encourage landlords to let apartments run down, and in the long term we are encouraging slums.

Stevenson is also forgetting that rents are really out of sync with real estate prices – rent is approx 3% house/apartment prices – the norm is 10%. This puts landlords at a real disadvantage and the return on investment is no longer based on rising property values.

This speaks volumes of how the real estate bubble is in Vancouver (also Calgary and Toronto) is going to create pain as it deflates.

Wait Till Spring

More signs that a meltdown will hit BC real estate this spring:

- In the comments section people are discussing making lowball offers on multiple properties – to payback the sellers for the multi-offer days.

- From a comment on pre-construction sales:

Many of them will be left holding the bag so to speak when they can’t assign their contracts,. They will have to complete at a loss. For some that may be easier said than done.

Due to financial constraints I cannot complete this purchase

http://vancouver.en.craigslist/81511.html

I have to give me deposit away for free because i can’t complete.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..65992.html

I’ve placed a deposit but cannot complete. Need someone to take this assignment from me.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..53522.html

Owner cannot complete on this property.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..14206.html

I won’t be able to close.

http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..66059.html

Our life-style has changed in the last 2 years and we will not be able to close http://vancouver.en.craigslist…..93833.html

the completion is in 2 weeks and my bank did not approve my financing. Therefore I can’t complete on this sale. http://vancouver.en.craigslist/40776.html

For those that like the stats:

Latest REBGV projections:

Listings: 3067 (-13% yoy)

Sales: 923 (-69% yoy)

Sell/List: 30% (-54 pts yoy)

MOI: 21.1 (462% yoy)

Actives: 19507 (76% yoy)

Avg Price SFH $753,967 (-7% yoy) (-9% mom) (-18% from peak)

Pre-construction investors killed real estate in Florida – now I’m witnessing the exact same scenario playing out here in Vancouver. I’m very happy I chose to rent – good times ahead for buyers.

The realtors will respond…

photo credit: ecstaticist

That Long Legged Mac Daddy

Reverend Wright Has nothing on this fella.

Hon. James David Manning tells people to support Alan Keyes and others who are demanding to see if Barack Hussein Obama is eligible to be President.

Who knew that there was a question on whether Barry is legit. Or is it Barry Santoro?

Boom Shacka Lacka Brother.

Just show the birth certificate, your Columbia University papers.. prove your past.

Don’t create another generation of 9/11 Truthers.

Vancouver – The Bubble Bursts

Another great variation on this theme… to close to the truth.

We’re starting to see this happen here in Vancouver.

Vancouver Real Estate – Sell It And Get A 100K Bonus

From Bloomberg

First the good news:

Seller Offers $100,000 Deal bonus for selling realtor

Now the bad news:

Price dropped to $3.99 Million…

Hanley put his 6,000 square-foot home on the market almost a year ago for $4.3 million. The house boasts an unobstructed Pacific Ocean view, sun-filled patios and an infinity swimming pool.

“People aren’t making major acquisitions while their net worth is declining,” Hanley said.

Not sure if that’s the only reason.

“Canada’s housing market seems to be tracking the U.S. with a two-year lag,” said David Wolf, a Toronto-based economist with Merrill Lynch & Co.

In West Vancouver, 565 detached homes were on the market last month, 88 percent more than a year earlier, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. Only 19 sold. At that rate it would take 2 1/2 years to sell the current inventory.

The price of a typical, detached house in West Vancouver declined to $1.14 million from $1.46 million a year earlier.

That’s down 22% so far. I’m waiting for 35%.

Here’s an updated snapshot of what you get for your money here in Vancouver:

$500,000:

Good starter, renovate or build your home. CD1 Zoning. This 3 level 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath solid home is situated in desirable Renfrew Height Area, South facing with view potential.

$800,000:

Excellent 5 bdrm bung. on 33′ lot (3 main, 2 down). Mostly new windows, hardwood, spacious, shows well.

And finally, let’s go for broke – $1,000,000

Fantastic Custom Built Family Home in sought after Main Street neighbourhood! 4 large bedrooms up, 2 with en-suite!

No hurry, these should still be there this spring.

Putting on the Ritz

Construction was halted on Vancouver’s premier property yesterday…

Advertising signage around the site was missing and construction trailers had been removed from the site.

Bob Rennie, who markets the project, said 50 per cent of the condominium units were pre-sold.

“I’ve just been instructed by Holborn (building’s developer) to make it clear that it is a suspension of construction until they go through redesign,” Rennie said Tuesday.

This makes it the tenth development canceled lately, causing a wee bit of concern in Vancouver’s booming high rise development.

But, as we all know, the Olympics are coming. Prices for condos should continue to rise.

Get out and buy before it’s too late.

(Ritz homes are priced from $2.5 – $10 million. Penthouse pricing available upon request)

Real Estate Bubble – Vancouver Style

Anyone questioning that Vancouver has reached the end of the bubble only needs to see what you can get for your money…

Here’s a sampling.

1) Nice area – you’ll need the mortgage helper:

An excellent Point Grey property with exceptional streetscape. Located in a family oriented neighbourhood, this home has 5 bedrooms, 3 baths & an extremely open layout. Bsmt is the perfect mortgage helper. Close to UBC & great shops.

$1,068,000.00

2) The only house under 800K on the west side.

This is a great opportunity to live in a very special part of Kitsilano. A quiet & cozy spot yet close to everything – Great shopping, restaurants, coffee bars, The Hollywood Theatre, beach. Lovely lush garden. 54 x 40 corner lot. Darling little handyman’s special is waiting for your special TLC & decorating ideas. This is the least expensive house in Kitsilano.

2 bedrooms/1600 square feet. $799,000

3) Let’s try the east side..

Just off the Trans-Canada… might need some work.

Sit on your deck and enjoy a 260 degree view of Vancouver and its spectacular sunsets. Long time owner. Home not liveable & building lot only with unobstructed, permanent view on corner lot.

So if you’re in the market for a new home, you may want to wait for just a little bit.

Vancouver Leads the Country

photo credit: labanex

Vancouver leads the real estate trend and dragged the average price of an existing home in Canada lower last month.

The August sales numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show 3 consecutive monthly drops in existing-home prices. This will be the largest decline in more than nine years.

Sales fell by 53.4 per cent in greater Vancouver in August compared with the year before, and average prices dropped by 4 per cent for both detached homes and condo units, to $737,985 and $374,366, respectively.

This is following July’s overall housing unit sales drop of 44 per cent.

According to Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., the cooling of the Vancouver market is the most “disturbing” figure in a series of recently released housing data, including national new-home prices, building permit applications and housing starts.

“The drop was pretty serious, especially coming on the back of a big sales drop there the month before. When you’ve got sales for your most expensive city falling like that, that’s going to knock the stuffing out of the national average,” he said. “The other [economic] data was a little better than expected, but it can be choppy from month to month, and continues to show the market is cooling.”

The market here in Vancouver is still ridiculously high – but there’s hope for those of us waiting for this correction to play out.

I am betting prices will be down at least 20% by next spring.

Look on the bright side…

photo credit: 96dpi

Canada’s economic outlook downgraded

The OECD has cut Canadian growth forecasts and now predict growth of less than 1 percent for the year:

Canada’s economy will expand by just 0.8 per cent in 2008, down from the 1.2 per cent forecast last spring, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projected in a revised economic outlook Tuesday. That’s also less than the 1.1 per cent now projected by the Finance Department.

The U.S. economy, however, will expand by 1.8 per cent, up from the 1.2 per cent projected in the spring, and the G7 countries will grow on average by 1.4 per cent, unchanged from the spring projection.

The only G7 country that will post weaker growth than Canada is Italy, now projected to expand by 0.1 per cent.

Big drop in Lower Mainland home sales

‘This summer, sales went off a cliff,’ says urban economist
Derrick Penner, Vancouver Sun

The turn of the Lower Mainland real estate market’s cycle has been more dramatic than expected with real estate boards reporting another drop in sales and slide in prices at the end of August.

In Greater Vancouver, August Multiple Listing Service sales were down almost 54 per cent to 1,568 units, compared with 3,348 units in the same month a year ago.

Lower oil, home prices and pressure on retail prices… all the things that may let Vancouver fall back in line with the rest of the country.

Now’s the time to start putting away cash, and this time next year there may be real deals out there.

Good thing the Olympics are almost here to save the day.

Don’t Buy A Strata In Vancouver

photo credit: penmachine

If you decide to buy (?) think twice of the property is a strata. A strata is basically a political board – and we all know how politics work in BC.

Some of the fun things you’ll get if you do buy a strata include:

* There’s no source of legislation interpretation to let you in on the operation of strata corporations according to law (search Google and let me know if you find anything),
* They do not need to inform owners and purchasers of the financial implications of the condition of common property,
* No need for an audit of strata finances even where the strata corporation has hundreds of thousands of dollars in a reserve fund, and
* The lack of prosecution of developers operating contrary to strata legislation.

In other words, the strata typically becomes a group of self-serving busy bodies, with the ability to harass, ignoring problems with common areas, and getting away with it.

The lack of audited financial leaves the system wide open for misappropriation of funds.

A neighbor of mine has been fighting with his strata for over a year, as they will not fix the exterior of his condo. They won’t let him do it himself and have made his life hell. His property has taken a hit and he has nowhere to turn.

His only option is to sue, and the cost is very high. And the strata board knows it.

Look out for buildings where there are foreign investors also. They won’t vote or participate in the strata’s decisions. This can create a lot of problems.

The “leaky condos” mess should have brought radical changes to stratas, but I guess legislators were too busy passing lifestyle laws and finding new sneaky ways to tax us, to really care about condo owners financial security.

How A Politician Can Help Bring Down A Bank

From the Wall Street Journal:

The director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, John Reich, blamed IndyMac’s failure on comments made in late June by Sen. Charles Schumer (D., N.Y.), who sent a letter to the regulator raising concerns about the bank’s solvency. In the following 11 days, spooked depositors withdrew a total of $1.3 billion.

Mr. Reich said Sen. Schumer gave the bank a “heart attack.”

“Would the institution have failed without the deposit run?” Mr. Reich asked reporters. “We’ll never know the answer to that question.”

photo credit: yanec

This demonstrates how one voice, or dumb politician, can start a stampede when it comes to banking or real estate. IndyMac Bank suffered one of the biggest bank closures in US history.

In Vancouver the media works in harmony to turn bad news into good. Especially when it comes to real estate. As they get a lot of their profit from real estate ads, so don’t hold your breath you’ll get any warning until after the spiral begins.

The announcement of a tightening on 40 year mortgages is a good sign there is trouble ahead. The Bank of Montreal said on Friday that it will stop offering 40-year mortgages… 3 months ahead of the rule change. Considering that 63% of home buyers take these mortgages, just to be able to afford the payments, it will have an immediate impact on home sales and prices.

Say good-bye to liar loans (no proof of a borrower’s ability to repay) and hello to a max of 45% for a borrower’s debt-service ratio.

This is not good news in Vancouver, where people fork over 70% of their income for the privilege of living in a “hot” housing market.